OPINION — The potential collapse of the Colorado River system threatens the water supply of about 40 million people across seven U.S. states and Mexico. Yet basin growth persists as if the risk were imaginary: more homes approved, more long-term water commitments made, more reliance on unproven future fixes.
This mirrors AI development, where experts estimate up to 25% risk of catastrophic failure or existential threat, yet progress accelerates unchecked due to competition and short-term incentives. No one slows first.
The same dismissive logic drives Western water policy. The river is over-allocated — math, not opinion. Flows decline, variability rises, aridification locks in a hotter, drier regime. Lakes Powell and Mead, designed for a vanished climate, are unlikely to refill fully. Recent reports warn of dead pool risks or power loss as early as 2026 under dry conditions, threatening hydropower, deliveries, and infrastructure like the Central Arizona Project.
