I just received a very official-looking mailing from “Yes on Daybreak.” The cover states in large, bold letters, “Millions in Town Revenue!” Always read the fine print, or in this case, not so fine.

The estimated total increase in town revenue for the next 10 years, they claim is $3.9 million. There is no mention of the increase in town expenditures that the development would require. The required additional police and fire protection is not free. Other expenses will be incurred by the town. Will the town end up with more revenue than expenses? I doubt it.

First, there are those increased expenses. Second, much of the sales tax revenue and increased consumer spending they estimate for the development will be spent outside Fountain Hills.

In all my years of studying local government finance as a university professor, I have never found a case where new development pays for itself in town finances and certainly not when the sales tax is the only source of local revenue.

While this letter is about the town finance claims, I cannot help but note another claim. They say this development will be far less damaging than a hotel. However, how likely is it that a hotel will be built? This land has been approved for a hotel for seven years, yet nobody wants to build one here. Another hotel proposal has potentially been scrapped. So that is a false comparison.

Many in town believe that we can grow our way out of the financial bind the town finds itself in. It will never happen. We will have to cut spending and/or find alternative sources of revenue.